by Henry Buzar February 25, 2022 Is the Ukraine invasion a serious miscalculation on the part of President Putin of Russia? This was an intr...
February 25, 2022
Is the Ukraine invasion a serious miscalculation on the part of President Putin of Russia? This was an intriguing question in the minds of many people. Yesterday, Philippine time, when cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other parts of Ukraine woke to the sound of large explosions and air raid sirens. The invasion of Ukraine has begun.
Ukraine is the 2nd largest country by area in Europe after Russia, In the aftermath of the Russian Revolution that began during the 1st WW, the Ukrainian national movement for self-determination emerged. The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic was a founding member of the Soviet Union in 1922 and regained its independence in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Ukraine is a developing nation ranking 74th on the Human Development Index (the Philippines is at 107 out of 189 countries) and the poorest in Europe suffering from a very high poverty rate and severe corruption (Wikipedia, Feb. 2022).
Rich in natural resources, Ukraine is seventh among countries with a uranium reserve of about 41 metric tons, while Russia placed at the 10th with 25 metric tons.
What are the reasons then why Putin is interested in invading Ukraine?
Putin said that he ordered a special military operation in Ukraine to protect the people in the Donbas, who he argued were being subjected to genocide by the government in Kyiv. He added that the invasion aims to demilitarize and eventual denazification (purging all elements of Nazism – Nazi of Germany) of Ukraine.
Looking at the image of a map below, we can see that Ukraine is very close to Russia that Putin believed that Ukraine's independence would lead it to NATO membership which would look like a dagger threatening Russia militarily. Russia then issued an expansive demand calling all NATO states to formally retract a 2008 pledge that the alliance would one day admit Ukraine and Georgia, promise not to deploy certain weapon systems to states near Russia, and refrain from military drills and maneuvers near Russian borders.
To ensure Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO, Putin decided to invade Ukraine to the chagrin of democratic states like the US and its allied nations.
Is this move of Putin a miscalculation on his part?
There are two scenarios’ you readers can decide. 1) the US and Europe engaging Russia in war and 2) that it doesn’t want to engage and give in to the desire of Putin, i.e., letting Ukraine be a sacrificial pawn in the chess of geopolitics.
If the US and its allies do wage war with Russia because of Ukraine and the war escalates, it might drag China, Iran, and North Korea in the conflict and might start WW 3, a war we don’t want to happen due to our being a principal country at stake in "luli" islands (lulubog-lilitaw) such as Spratly, Paracel and Scarborough Shoals with China and other ASEAN.
I hope our countrymen who are clamoring for peace in Ukraine and to fight nail and tooth with China awaken from their dreams of fighting an unnecessary war with our neighbors.
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