Why Duterte's endorsement would not matter

by Henry Buzar April 5, 2022 Go and Duterte (Photo from the Rody Duterte FB Page) Many presidential candidates and their supporters desire ...

by Henry Buzar
April 5, 2022

Go and Duterte (Photo from the Rody Duterte FB Page)

Many presidential candidates and their supporters desire a Duterte endorsement. Duterte's phenomenal satisfaction rating through and through has never been chronicled in the country’s political annals. Candidates and supporters on both sides of the fence are urgently longing for a presidential blessing. Lacson and Sotto admitted that Duterte’s endorsement is “gold.” Manny Pacquaio hopes that the President being PDP-Laban Chairman would endorse him but a rift with Cusi, the acting President of the other faction forced him to run under PROMDI – a Cebu based political party. On December 2021, he barked that he was open to Duterte’s support for his candidacy. When Pacquaio realized that the PDP-LABAN is set to endorse the President's daughter Sarah for President, he began criticizing the President and now says that he isn’t seeking Duterte’s endorsement.

Just a few days ago, Duterte mentioned that he wished for a lawyer to be his successor. Last March 15, in Cotabato, Robredo said that she is open to a possible endorsement from Duterte. Ebardone, the Vice-President of the President's party endorsed Robredo with the president giving his blessing but did not commit to any official endorsement.



Even Moreno, hopeful of Duterte’s endorsement has the backing of the officers and members of Mayor Duterte's National Executive Coordinating Committee headed by John Castriones.

Senator “Imee” Marcos is calling for Duterte's support for his brother. She disclosed that her family wrote a letter to President Duterte and implored him to support Marcos.



But, would a Duterte endorsement matter to the electorate? Would DDS follow his endorsement and vote for his anointed?

That’s a million questions.

Duterte knowing fully well, being a master tactician, that his endorsement won’t matter. Past history proved that the batting average of a presidential endorsement carried a miserable 22 percent of the voters and only President Ramos survived the odd. He was the only president blessed by then Cory Aquino that got the plum but his ascension to office was marked by massive cheating according to Miriam Defensor Santiago who placed second in the pool of 6 aspirants.



Now, the bet is off. Who will win in the 2022 presidential election? Would President Duterte’s endorsement matter?

In my opinion, Duterte’s endorsement has little effect on any candidate’s winnability this coming election. Marcos with or without Duterte’s blessing will win the election considering scientific proof of the various pollsters' data gathering methodologies.

Eliminating the “kalye survey” and the social media online survey which are not scientific and did not use a random sampling technique, the SWS, Pulse Asia, and Laylo’s Research Firm’s forecasts are scientific and poll proof. These survey firms have long been doing survey after survey and assisted the government came up with economic, social, and political policies. With 52 days left before the elections, their analytics point to Marcos winning the May 9 presidential elections. From my analysis and backed data, about 60% which is a conservative estimate are certain whom to vote for this coming election.

Having 67 million registered voters and averaging the past presidential elections in 2010 and 2016 who have cast their votes, we will have a 78.5% turn-out, that’s about 52M voters. Again, with 60% certain whom to vote, that is about 40M whose preference for a certain candidate is assured. If the turn-out is 52M voters, with 40M certain whom to vote (the same percentage applied to turnout) then you are left with only 12M undecided voters.

Marcos, if hypothetically, gets 50% preference and added the difference of say 10% to Robredo’s votes, it will only total to about 25% which is still way out to catch with Marcos’ voters’ preference. Conservative estimate would then conclude that Marcos may have 33M votes compared with Robredo’s 16M votes which is a very high estimate.

So, the final verdict is that Marcos will have a landslide victory unprecedented in a Philippine Presidential election and would not in any way sway endorsements coming from Duterte. Based on historical perspective any endorsement coming from the President is a death wish as only President Ramos was an exception.

Duterte is astute to have analyzed this situation, knowing fully well that his daughter’s candidacy might experience setback if ever he decides to endorse any of the presidential candidates.

Only through cheating similar to SMARTMATIC hocus-pocus or a global event such as a war involving the Philippines can alter the destiny of Marcos. But having said destiny, it’s a certain thing.